The Weekly Edge

Falling Slowly 

Falling Slowly 

Introduction – “Take this sinking boat and point it home” Economic data is pointing to a slowdown in activity, but markets seem far from concerned. The S&P 500 is back at all-time highs, and companies are expected to report growing earnings for the second quarter....

The Fed Waves Through a Window at Markets 

The Fed Waves Through a Window at Markets 

Introduction – I’ve Learned to Slam on the Brake Before I Even Turn the Key Before this week, the Federal Reserve had not released updated economic and interest rate forecasts since March 19th. That sure feels like a long time ago. While members of the central bank’s...

7empest 

7empest 

Heat lighting flash, but don’t blink Misleading Tranquility ruse You’re gonna happen again That’s what I think Follow the evidence Look it dead in the eye You are darkness Trying to lull us in, before the havoc begins Into a dubious state of serenity “7empest”, TOOL...

Consumers Have Us. Who’s Got Them? 

Consumers Have Us. Who’s Got Them? 

Consumers in “The Space Between” The latest twists in 2025’s economic policy soap opera came from a federal court this week striking down the bulk of U.S. tariffs…only for a higher court to put that ruling on hold less than 24 hours later. While we wait for the...

My Boy Only Breaks His Favorite Toys 

My Boy Only Breaks His Favorite Toys 

“Oh, here we go again” Taylor Swift, My Boy Only Breaks His Favorite Toys Global bond markets let out a primal scream this week that was reminiscent of a fully-“seen” millennial singing along to The Tortured Poets Department at max volume (IYKYK). Long bond yields...

It’s Not Unusual 

It’s Not Unusual 

You know, for years, scientists have wondered, can you make grown men and women weep tears of joy by playing Tom Jones’ “It’s Not Unusual”? And the answer is yes, you can, as long as it is preceded by seven “What’s New Pussycat”’s. – John Mulaney John Mulaney’s...

Will Congress Abide The Big Tax Bill? 

Will Congress Abide The Big Tax Bill? 

Blond Treehorn Thug: Where’s the money, Lebowski? The Dude: It’s uh…uh…it’s down there somewhere, let me take another look. – The Big Lebowski, 1998 Introduction This is a very complicated case, Maude. You know, a lotta ins, a lotta outs, a lotta what-have-yous. And,...

Say You’ll Be There 

Say You’ll Be There 

And all that I want from you Is a promise you will be there Say you will be there “Say You’ll Be There”, Spice Girls It may not be a broadly appreciated factoid that the Spice Girls began as a fabricated pop group. Seeing the success of boy bands in the 1990s, Heart...

Eye of the Hurricane? 

Eye of the Hurricane? 

“Hey Curly, what all happens in a hurricane?” – Introduction Last week, we rolled out our Q2 economic and market outlook, entitled The Space Between. The title of Dave Matthews Band’s biggest hit single is an apt metaphor for the macro environment in which we find...