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There’s No Place Like the U.S. Housing Market 

“Oil can. Oil can!” – The Tin Man, The Wizard of Oz Considering its central role in the largest financial crisis in living memory, the U.S. housing market isn’t getting the attention it deserves from economists and investors. Construction and sales of homes, though...

Slow Hands 

We spiesWe slow handsPut the weights around yourself “Slow Hands”, Interpol The narrative ping pong continues. In the span of a mere two weeks, the market has gone from expecting a dire outcome of sharply weakening growth and the need for aggressive Fed easing (very...

We’re Gonna Need a Bigger Rate Cut 

You yell barracuda, everybody says, “Huh? What?” You yell shark, we’ve got a panic on our hands – Mayor Vaughn, Jaws Investors were reminded of a valuable lesson this week: falling interest rates can be good for risk assets but only up to a point and only for the...

Time to Party Like It’s 1995? 

I was dreaming when I wrote this Forgive me if it goes astray – Prince, “1999” U.S. politics has been delivering more twists and turns lately than even the most melodramatic arc on The West Wing. And yet, diversified investors have come through the chaotic headlines...

An Ode to Maybe 

Well, maybeWhat you need I hope it finds you “An Ode to Maybe” – Third Eye Blind Harry Truman once asked to be sent a one-armed economist, frustrated with the profession’s propensity to condition every assessment with “on the one hand this… while on the other hand...

High Yield on the Highway to the Danger Zone? 

Maverick: She’s lost that loving feeling. Goose: No, she hasn’t. Maverick: Yes, she has. – Top Gun, 1986 Last week, we noted a “change of speed” for the U.S. economic growth outlook. Inflation has resumed its decline, and there are emerging signs of fraying in the...

New Dawn Fades 

A change of speed, a change of style “New Dawn Fades” – Joy Division There has been “a change of speed, a change of style” for the U.S. economic growth outlook. For the first time in over twelve months, U.S. GDP forecasts for 2024 have been trimmed, and with these...